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Fed & Monetary Policy

Fed heads for its first hike under Warsh as Trump demands the world's lowest rates

Markets are pricing an increase at this week's meeting, the first of Kevin Warsh's tenure, while the president calls publicly for the lowest rates anywhere.

Assembled by Claude from 12 sources at 10 outlets · Monday, September 14, 2026, Morning edition, 10:23 AM EDT · no human byline

Disclosure. This item was assembled by an AI from the RSS excerpts of the outlets tagged inline. No human wrote or checked it before publication. Feed selection and categories are editorial choices by Teresa Lo. Nothing here is investment advice.

What happened

The Federal Reserve's policy meeting runs Tuesday and Wednesday, with the rate decision due at 2:00 pm and Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference at 2:30 pm barchart.com. Reuters reported that the table is set for a rate increase, which would be the first delivered under Warsh reuters.com. The decision falls on Sept. 16 dallasexpress.com. Traders were pricing about an 86.5 percent chance of a hike at the meeting, up from about 67 percent earlier cnbc.com.

At the July meeting the Federal Open Market Committee voted 9 to 3 to keep rates unchanged at 3.50 to 3.75 percent markets.com. The three dissenters – Cleveland's Beth Hammack, Dallas's Lorie Logan and Minneapolis's Neel Kashkari – preferred to raise the range by one-quarter percentage point dallasexpress.com. Reuters noted that the same three regional bank presidents had already felt the case for a move in July reuters.com.

Why it matters to investors

Ahead of the meeting President Trump said the United States should have the world's lowest interest rate reuters.com. Semafor reported that the call piles pressure on Warsh days before the bank is expected to raise rates amid an increasingly hawkish global outlook semafor.com. National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett said Trump would defend Warsh's independence above all reuters.com.

Bloomberg and the Financial Times both described Warsh and Trump as on a collision course as the hike looms bloomberg.comft.com. The FT attributed the clash to stubbornly high inflation as markets prepared for the decision ft.com. Bloomberg noted that Trump had praised his hand-picked chairman at the White House swearing-in ceremony in May bloomberg.com. Analysts say the central bank chief's credibility is on the line forexfactory.com.

What to watch

Semafor reported that investors overwhelmingly expect Warsh to deliver on the hawkish speech he gave at Jackson Hole last month semafor.com. UBS expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates twice before the end of 2026, citing comments from Warsh and jobs data finance.yahoo.com. Retail sales land in the same week as the decision barchart.com.

Gold slipped as the oil rally fanned rate-hike bets ahead of the meeting cnbc.com. Forex Factory framed the week as all eyes on the Fed to tackle high inflation in the world's largest economy forexfactory.com. Whether the committee splits again, and in which direction, is the detail to read after the statement markets.comdallasexpress.com. A hike would reverse the July decision rather than extend it, and would do so with the same three regional presidents already on record wanting a higher range markets.comreuters.com.

Sources

  1. reuters.com: Fed's table is set for a rate hike, a first under Warsh | Reuters (2026-09-14)
  2. markets.com: Fed Rate Hike Odds Surge Before Fed Decision - Markets.com (2026-09-14)
  3. dallasexpress.com: Fed Interest Rate Decision Sept. 16 Follows 9–3 July Split, Logan Dissent - Dallas Express (2026-09-14)
  4. reuters.com: Ahead of Fed meeting, Trump says US should have world's lowest interest rate | Reuters (2026-09-13)
  5. bloomberg.com: Fed's Warsh on Collision Course With Trump as Rate Hike Looms - Bloomberg (2026-09-13)
  6. ft.com: Warsh and Trump on collision course as investors expect Fed to raise rates (2026-09-14)
  7. barchart.com: Fed Decision, Retail Sales and Other Can't Miss Items This Week - Barchart.com (2026-09-13)
  8. cnbc.com: Gold slips as oil rally fans rate hike bets ahead of Fed meeting - CNBC (2026-09-14)
  9. semafor.com: Fed poised to clash with Trump (2026-09-14)
  10. semafor.com: Trump says US interest rates should be lowest in the world (2026-09-13)
  11. forexfactory.com: All eyes on US Fed to tackle high inflation | Forex Factory (2026-09-13)
  12. finance.yahoo.com: UBS Expects Two Fed Rate Hikes by End of 2026 After Warsh Speech and Jobs Data (2026-09-13)