Consumer sentiment drops to 47.8, the second lowest reading on record
The University of Michigan index fell from 51.7 and missed consensus, with the expectations component falling further than the headline.
Assembled by Claude from 9 sources at 8 outlets · Saturday, September 12, 2026, Evening edition, 5:16 PM EDT · no human byline
What happened
The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment fell to 47.8 in September from the 51.7 recorded at the end of August wsj.com. The print missed a consensus of 51 newsquawk.com fxstreet.com. It is the second lowest level of consumer sentiment on record in a survey that has been conducted since 1952 salon.com freep.com.
The expectations component fell further than the headline. Consumer expectations came in at 45.8 against a forecast of 50.5 and a prior reading of 51.5 newsquawk.com. Sources describe the release differently: most treat the 47.8 as a preliminary September reading freep.com forexfactory.com newsquawk.com, while one account calls it a final reading and puts the month-on-month decline at 7.5% seekingalpha.com. Econbrowser recorded the same release as sentiment declining while inflation expectations rose econbrowser.com.
Why it matters to investors
A reading this low is normally a recession-era artefact rather than a mid-cycle one, and the composition is what makes this print unfriendly. Expectations at 45.8 sit below the headline index, which means the deterioration is concentrated in what households think comes next rather than in what they are living through now newsquawk.com. The expectations series also fell from a higher base, at 51.5 in the prior month against 51.7 on the headline newsquawk.com wsj.com.
The cause identified in the survey commentary is price rather than employment. The commentary cited a resurgence in fuel prices salon.com, and the accompanying rise in one-year inflation expectations is the part of the release that reaches monetary policy directly econbrowser.com. The miss against consensus was wide in both series, at more than three points on the headline and nearly five on expectations newsquawk.com newsquawk.com.
What to watch
Whether a final September reading confirms the preliminary one. The sources already disagree over which of the two this is, with most describing a preliminary print and one describing a final one freep.com seekingalpha.com, and the gap between a preliminary and a revised figure is where a low number sometimes becomes less alarming. The 7.5% month-on-month decline attached to the final-reading account is the only percentage change any of the sources put on the move seekingalpha.com.
The prior series gives the benchmark: 51.7 on the headline in August and 51.5 on expectations wsj.com newsquawk.com. A second consecutive fall of this size would take the index below the historical lows referenced in the coverage rather than merely back toward them wsj.com. Joanne Hsu runs the survey, and the detail in her commentary on fuel prices is the line to read next month fxstreet.com salon.com.
Sources
- econbrowser.com: Sentiment Declines as Inflation Expectations Rise (2026-09-11)
- wsj.com: Consumer Sentiment Is Lower in September, per Michigan Survey (2026-09-11)
- newsquawk.com: US Michigan Consumer Expectations Preliminary (Sep) 45.8 vs. Exp. 50.5 (Prev. 51.5) (2026-09-12)
- seekingalpha.com: Consumer Sentiment Falls Again In September | Seeking Alpha (2026-09-12)
- freep.com: How what you pay at the gas pump could ultimately influence Fed rates - Detroit Free Press (2026-09-12)
- forexfactory.com: US consumer sentiment falls as rising gas prices weigh on wallets, inflation expectations tick up (2026-09-12)
- newsquawk.com: US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel (Sep) 47.8 vs. Exp. 51 (Prev. 51.7) - Newsquawk (2026-09-12)
- fxstreet.com: British Pound shakes off US CPI jolt as UK growth steals spotlight | FXStreet (2026-09-12)
- salon.com: August was brutal for consumers. September could be worse - Salon.com (2026-09-11)